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After focusing, "4000000000000" Time to start private investment in major economic wisdom

January 1, 2011

[Begins with the words] 2009 Shadow lopsided. The new year, how to consolidate China's steady rise of the economy? How to overcome the continuing impact of the global financial crisis? We know that only correctly grasp the situation, to further address the impact of consolidation of the foundation, into 2010 when the newspaper launched "Breakthrough 2009 - against 2010," Series New Year's feature articles, readers more than trying to deconstruct the economic point of view, look to the future .

In 2008 full-blown global economic crisis and the background of mountains and rolling hillsides, "4000000000000" The introduction of fiscal stimulus, to show the world the Chinese government about the situation of the courage and determination to re-let countries know the potential and the Eastern Dragon strength.

Despite the strong national regulation of such practices from the beginning been controversial: the source of funds on the 4 trillion, about 4 trillion of investment flows, on the duplication and waste of resources, concerns, or even possible on the implementation of the process of corruption ... ...

However, to date, no one can deny, "4000000000000" to the nation into confidence and passion, especially in this "confidence is more important than gold," the period of such an ambitious investment Imagination, enough to support the Chinese nation to join hands to overcome the crisis eventually break through this difficult period.

"Two years 4000000000000" program nowadays has more than half, from the fourth quarter of 2008 to the third quarter of 2009, the central government has pledged 1.18 trillion yuan investment has issued four batches of 380 billion yuan. The economic recovery has become a trend in 2010 - this or that can be called Hou 4 trillion in the era of the Chinese macro-Tiaokongfangzhen Ruhe to rural fiscal investment direction on how Zhuan Bian, market financing subject to conversion, the Chinese economy has inspired Haishidigu wandering, etc. These issues will be answered.

Indeed, the central government's expectations, the "4 trillion" is a good way to support within the tune, not only at immediate excitement of fast needle. Therefore, since it is more of a side edge of the process of governance, then the change ill and need to constantly adjust to change treatment.

9.7 trillion yuan huge loans to digest, the shadow of overcapacity predictable, stimulating economic growth, "Troika," a serious imbalance ... ... "4000000000000" The new issue has caused the central government attached great importance.

Early December 2009, the annual Central Economic Work Conference, set the tone for the coming year's economic work guidelines. "More emphasis on ways to promote economic development in transition and economic restructuring", which is central to the height of the 2010 general development trend.
"4000000000000" Who is crazy to
Embattled status of the world economy, the central government for two years 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus program, beginning the construction of China's largest ever investment in the prologue.
"4000000000000" fiscal stimulus soon as he was introduced, immediately triggered a wave of local government 18 trillion of investment.

This is a popular investment community a real conversation - 2008 year, Running over to Beijing for approval by, jam Sanlihe central ministries in Beijing office. From 10 months, where the restaurant is always crowded, difficult to get rooms, casual seat diners are talking about tens of billions of dollars in the project approval, this spectacular event not seen in years, so earlier because of business bad and shut down the restaurant owner jealous endless.

This unique landscape of the reason appears simple. 4 trillion yuan from the State Department announced fiscal stimulus since the central ministries and local provinces and cities have stand up. To the end of November 2008, the country's 24 provinces have announced investment plans total over 18 trillion yuan. Although these plans can not be granted, but so amazing impulse to invest, including more unrealistic bubble.

Followed by local governments, banks also followed up crazy - as with the State Department, "4000000000000" plan, engineering, agriculture, in construction and other banks to support the rapid implementation of the national credit plan to expand domestic demand, the end result is the 2009 year of 9.7 trillion yuan in the day the scale of the amount of credit over the two years 2007 and 2008, and credit.

The course of economic growth and asset price inflation process, credit risk may be covered up, but if excess capacity and asset prices, credit risk exposure will be immediately, so as the scale of credit expansion, credit risk of the banking system can not be ignored.

In this loose liquidity stimulated the most sensitive nature of capital markets could not escape the attacks crazy. China's stock market in 2009 led the unprecedented performance of the global capital markets - more than 1,800 points from the beginning of the year started, the Shanghai index rose to 3478 points at one time during the year, or nearly doubled, while in 1581 the shares tradable, the cumulative rose more than 200% of the shares are more than 500, or more than 100% of the up to 1281. This is clearly beyond the most professional organizations is expected in the early Conservative.

China's property market in 2009, can use the "contrarian shot up" to describe the impact of economic crisis were not the slightest, but ushered in the development of the strongest year in history. Looking at the real estate market in 2009, the superheat is almost no one denied even the crazy performance.

Hangzhou reproduction room number of the wonders of speculation, seven or eight thousand people fighting for more than 200 a house, a room number is low then the high hundreds of thousands of thousands; Beijing rings Kai Wai's real estate sale price of up to 17,000 / m ... ... a hit television show, describing the scene staged in reality 11.

Above all the madness of all such initiatives, and the real economy does not match the real development, so the process of economic recovery will inevitably hamper the breeding of a lot of economic recovery in 2010 and steady growth of a variety of risks - across the "big , dry, fast, on the "blind construction, many key industry overcapacity, pressure on banks carrying huge credit, capital markets, property market, the bubble grows bigger and bigger and so had to arouse our vigilance.

2010 Economic Key words: "structural adjustment"

If a year ago, everyone on the global financial crisis China's economy can maintain the growth rate of 8% had doubts, then a year later, in 2009, "Paul 8," the general trend has been set, many people have started optimistic estimates of economic growth in 2010, journalists present to hear the most exciting targets of 10%.

Can be seen hanging in the oral compared to the "attention" and build a fair market environment and provide a good platform to break the monopoly of smoke as soon as possible, lower the threshold, and for enterprises, especially private enterprises relaxed, more to the enterprise development space, etc. policy formulation and effective implementation, is an effective means to start private investment

However, as many economists have repeatedly called for, we must focus not only GDP growth rate, but also the composition of GDP and quality of care. At the same time, have some analysts are concerned that, should Zhuyi high economic growth rate may give ecology, environment, resources, and to bring about a greater pressure, led to the Chinese economy in sustainable development, there is worry.
Facts have proved that the central government not only has the courage to turn the tide, even the wisdom of the road between the transformation lineup.

In early December 2009 the economic work conference, "increase the economic structural adjustment, improve quality and efficiency of economic development" was placed in a prominent position, this has all passed out an important signal - "to promote change, the structure" will be the economic work in 2010.
Should be seen, the central government the proposed "to promote change, the structure" the content is extremely rich.

The hardest hit are industrial restructuring. Although the industrial revitalization plan in 2009 will continue, but to stimulate investment and growth-oriented revitalization plan is different is that the rational distribution of industry and standardize market order to be valued more. Promote the traditional industries to production, promotion of more competitive, innovative enterprises become the focus of the 2010 policy, new energy, new materials, information industry, new medicines, bio-breeding, energy saving and environmental protection, electric car seven Strategic stimulus package of new industries will be next year's "opening act."

In addition, the central fiscal policy adjustment is occurring. 2009 key investment areas of central funds, "Rail-based" (railway, highway, infrastructure) will be out of favor, replaced will be the people's livelihood, consumption and social undertakings, at the same time, changes in the structure of economic growth has also been continuously mentioned. And last year's general "domestic demand to promote the" different is that the "coordinated development of exports of consumption and investment" policy statement, showing the structure of economic growth will drive a fundamental change in policy will focus on promoting growth in consumption-based economic growth, the transfer of this growth may bear fruit next year.

With the economic restructuring, the credit structure, too, are changing - credit support from the extremely liberal credit to focus on speed, focus, emphasis on the orientation and flexibility, and control of high energy consumption, high emission industries and industries with excess production capacity loans.

In addition, the economic work conference, the economy of urbanization is different from the previous meeting a key words, "actively and steadily promote urbanization to enhance the quality and level of urban development" will be the next to increase consumption, expanding domestic demand, adjust the economic structure An important emphasis.

The farmers into urban residents, by increasing the proportion of tertiary industry, digest and absorb into the population in rural areas and small cities and towns to relax the restrictions on residence, socio-economic development in 2010 the biggest bright spot. "If the urban population to double if you have excess capacity?" Some experts such comment.
Starting the great wisdom of investment

We can see that China's rapid economic rise over the past year, the most important drivers of investment in particular, government investment. "The current economic stabilization is not due mainly to the good external demand and domestic demand, but mainly due to smoke caused by the Government's investment." Macro-Economic Research Institute researcher Han-sub, said investment, the sustainability of this improvement in the situation not smoke look at how the investment can adhere to, but how much depends on government investment to stimulate private investment.

"China's investment growth in 2010 will present the state-owned capital and private capital, the situation together, rather than country people do not enter into the state." Zuo Xiaolei, chief economist at Galaxy Securities analysts believe that the focus of the policy may be more up in the promotion of private capital investment, the promotion of state-owned capital is more effective and more competitive investments. "Pull private investment, should be next year's key words." Then, on the importance of private investment has become a consensus, how to become a test of driving ability of the government test questions.

Can be seen hanging in the oral compared to the "attention" and build a fair market environment and provide a good platform to break the monopoly of smoke as soon as possible, lower the threshold, and for enterprises, especially private enterprises relaxed, more to the enterprise development space, etc. policy development and effective implementation, is an effective means to start private investment.
It is gratifying that this progress has taken shape.

It is reported that the development led by the National Development and Reform Commission, was reported in early August 2009 the State Council's "further encourage and promote private investment in a number of opinions" is stepping up development in the "Opinions" also known as "private investment 20 . "

2009, 12 months, involved in the formulation of the policy, a person said, is currently developing a policy more than the refined version in August, "down to the individual to relax the monopoly industries access threshold scale, as well as clean up, remove various restrictions and other discriminatory provisions. "However, in some significant areas of industry within the industry surplus and depressed prices of competing in a fierce competition, this vicious cycle will be a great blow to the enthusiasm of private capital investment.
In view of this, get rid of private capital investment barriers, in addition to a more relaxed environment for enterprises, but also the government macro-control means through strong support and positive guidance.

It is understood, is developing policies to promote private investment, encourage and support on specific information into the public infrastructure, public utilities, financial services and social enterprise sectors while accelerating the railway, electricity, municipal utilities, reform of monopoly industries.

The central economic work conference set the tone, the major commercial banks are following suit, have started to adjust credit structure for next year, one of the highlights of the credit policy to increase support for SMEs. Among them, Bank of China, Construction Bank made it clear that will continue to strengthen the national key projects, small and medium-income housing, a major science and technology projects, energy conservation projects and credit support. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China is required, the SME loan growth is higher than the bank's loan growth.

2010: can not miss the historical point in time
2010 was such a natural history pushed to the cusp.

The face of the upcoming series of structural adjustment measures, many may have to face the pressure of even short-term pain, bear the brunt of that cost control has been for the competitiveness of Chinese enterprises. But for the Chinese economy, this pain is the Line
Required before. Needless to say, change the economic growth situation of over-reliance on resource consumption, while the alternative to improve management, improve the quality of workers for economic growth, which continued long-term health of China's economic development boost.

And the global recession in 2009 a big difference, in 2010 the international economy will enter a slow recovery. China's international trade in the face of external demand market, will also be greatly improved. According to optimistic estimates, in 2010 China's import and export, respectively, 12% -14% and 14% -15% growth, surplus growth will resume the contribution of exports to economic growth.
Relative to the pressure of the major economic subjects, the people in 2010 should feel more "protected."

Central Economic Work Conference that the 2010 should improve the livelihood of the people, the development of social undertakings as to expand domestic demand, adjust the economic structure, focus, determined to push forward, and clearly put forward the employment, social security, education and culture as the focus of promoting .

"Country people first." Security and livelihood is the ultimate goal of economic development, but also our strategy of expanding domestic demand and promote economic development means a major change initiatives. Weaving a tight social security "safety net" can not only effectively improve the population quality of life, to solve people's worries, you can also stimulate consumption and sustained economic growth momentum.

We take a closer look at reality from 2009 has started weaving this "safety net": the social security system, improve the level of social security. Helping to increase assistance to low-income people's efforts to step up the implementation of the country to formulate a unified social insurance transfer connection measures, make the new rural social pension insurance pilot work.

The next three years, all levels of government will invest 850 billion yuan added to ease the people see a doctor to focus on your problems, focus on promoting the building of the basic medical insurance system reform, including the five.

Adhere to a more active employment policies to guide and promote labor-intensive enterprises, SMEs, private economy, accelerate the development of a variety of services to encourage college graduates to urban and rural grass-roots level, the central and western regions, small and medium enterprises and self-employment venture.
Increase the supply of common commercial housing and support of the residents own homes and improve housing demand.
Meanwhile, low-cost housing will also strengthen the construction of affordable housing in support of shantytowns, inhibition of speculative buyers, and promote the healthy development of real estate.
Starting from the fall semester of 2009, on the public secondary school students in vocational school full-time students from poor families in rural areas and agriculture students to gradually remove the fees.
Increase the national income distribution adjustment of the residents, especially low-income people increased spending power ... ... ...

Central 1.18 trillion budget for fiscal input to do the rest of the 800 billion support, if the above objectives can be real, and our social security system can be fully constructed on this basis, further complemented by the flexible and effective if the consumer incentives, and actively activating non-capital to form reasonable industrial structure and product supply and demand structure of society, then we have reason to believe that, in 2010, China will eventually achieve healthy economic growth and development for the whole community to further lay a solid foundation .
2010, destined to become a historical point in time can not be missed.

Filed under: Armored Iron Horse (Financial set)

Tags: China, credit, Economic, financial, fiscal stimulus, social security