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China will enter the final round of the rapid growth of wealth to be as early as possible

November 29, 2010

China's economy in 2010 is the most complex of the year. Everyone for their business and find a direction for his life when two of the direction of macroeconomic policy is that people looking for a light.

March 22, coinciding with two close, Zhongshan University School of Management EMBA centers invited to the Chief Economist and the State Information Center predicted Fan Jianping, director of Zhongshan University School of Management students to interpret the "two sessions of new economic policy adjustment and the economy in 2010 trend. " Fan Jianping said in 2010, although complicated, but the future is bright, very worth the wait. After 2011, China will enter the history of the last round of the demographic dividend of the times - high-speed growth, so rich to as early as possible.
After the reporter two times after the weekly number of hot issues, interviewed Mr. Fan.
Efforts to increase innovation
Die Zeit: This year, the focus of economic work is what?
Fan Jianping: in 2010, the central economic work is to adjust the structure, while still maintain growth, control inflation.

New round of economic recovery in the world is not particularly bright prospects for the context, especially "bungy Four" gave us all a revelation, the policy can not stimulate the economy now out. Now the whole world is anxious waiting for the new energy, new materials, new technology out of these new strategic industry, lower costs, more competitive than the traditional industries, and then into the industrial expansion stage.

However, the beginning of the new world strategic investment in strategic industries, and when we can wait until the beginning of new technologies into large-scale marketing of, and now is hard to say. Based on the new type of strategic investment to be calm, for example wind and solar power, may introduce you to spend the time today to spend the money is ginseng, but after you spend the end of the money is radish.
Die Zeit: the strategic direction of development of new industries is what?

Fan Jianping: This year the focus of investment is to provide a temporary relief, not to icing on the cake. This year's investment to make more money in people's livelihood, the energy spent to support the environment, support independent innovation, to support the construction of backward regions, Xinjiang, Tibet and other ethnic areas intensify support. China's independent innovation must be adopted, occupying the strategic high ground technology.

China is now known as wind generators, those equipment are bought from abroad, with the initial assembly of microwave ovens, refrigerators assembled What is the difference? This is definitely not the direction of strategic development of new industries. So in terms of investment, production capacity investment focus is to invest in high-tech transformation of traditional industries and new strategic industrial projects. China in the past, when the introduction of chip has eaten a lot of losses, and not to engage in independent research and development, with the back of the foreigners simply buy technology, but are backward technology to buy, can never escape the backward situation. In independent innovation, it was a bigger effort to, through the introduction, digestion, absorption, re-innovation, the pace will be faster.

After several years of efforts, China will be higher exports of iron and magnetic and other high-end technologies and products. Because, only these two technologies into China's commercial operation, the technology of these industries will be more practical. Therefore, in the future, China's exports will not only clothes, shoes, hats, lighters these labor-intensive products. This is the only way for China's industrialization.
Foreign exchange reform is not a scourge
Die Zeit: once again face a new round of RMB appreciation pressure for its appreciation of the pros and cons of how to treat?

Fan Jianping: We are most concerned about is the exchange rate policy. Central Economic Work Conference, and two, have stressed to continue improving the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, and keep the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level stable.

The key is to first return to the financial crisis, RMB appreciation rate prior to that, let it rise slowly. RMB appreciation, people buy oil, buy iron ore on the cheap, and our China is a country in great quantities, today to buy things on the cheap imports, and tomorrow the price of exports can not fall down? China now imports as much, and almost all of China's major consumer goods, the world's largest market. RMB exchange rate has an impact on imports and exports, should be comprehensively considered.
Die Zeit: After 1971, the Japanese because of the sharp appreciation of the yen, the Japanese economic recession caused. Foreign exchange reform to avoid repeating the mistakes of Japan do?

Fan Jianping: foreign exchange reform is not a scourge. Japan is different is that foreign exchange reform at the beginning we have developed the controllability of the RMB and the principles of independence, these two principles would control a very long time, while Japan's different is that they are not autonomous, but is passive. Controllability is that we do not free-floating exchange rate.
Die Zeit: In recent months, China's large holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, this how to treat?

Fan Jianping: China's large holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds are a form of strategy. Through the reduction, China is no longer the largest U.S. creditor. However, China's foreign exchange reserves is not a bad thing high, in fact, it has to address the financial risks. The Asian financial [3.04
0.33%] during the crisis, Thailand and other countries because foreign exchange reserves less, but suffered a financial crisis.

Finally, I want to say is that, in 2010 and 2011 is very important to enter the financial crisis began in 2009, 2010 and 2011, is a difficult period, if we adjust the policy, then we in 2011 after demographic dividend will enter the era of the history of the last round of high growth period, after which a rapid growth period, it is impossible if we want to get rich, so rich to be as early as possible, we are the first 20 years of this century, to seize the strategic opportunity to achieve the objective of wealthy and strong country.

Filed under: Armored Iron Horse (Financial set)

Tags: China, Economic, exchange reform, Fan Jianping, financial, rich